Thursday, October 14, 2010

The PED Question

The Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Bautista just completed a season in which he hit fifty-four home runs, good for the nineteenth highest total in a single season in MLB history. This has, as it should, brought up a number of skeptics wondering if Bautista has found a way to take performance enhancing drugs while passing the numerous tests the players in MLB are forced to take. Now realistically, I have no way of possibly knowing what the secret to Bautista's sudden success is, but let's at least realistically look at this.
First, this season, at least in my mind, seemed to be the emergence of a clean season after two decades of PEDs dominating the game of baseball. Every home run record in the game has fallen in our generation of baseball. This season though, seems to be one that is beginning a new lower standard for power in the game. Longtime steroid users seem to be tailing off. Pitching,speed, defense, and smart play are regaining a place in the game (Look at this years playoff teams, Rays, Giants, Rangers, Braves). This season a twenty home run player was thought of as a power hitter. Five years ago a season like that would likely be considered average to poor depending on the player, and it certainly would never get noticed as a good season. Its no coincidence that a season such as this comes right after the a new standard of steroid testing was implemented and a test for HGH was finally invented.
So in all of these things, how does Bautista have a career year, and even more, one of the best home run season of all time. Let'l look at a few more stats. Bautista finished the season tied for the nineteenth highest total in MLB history. Of the twenty-four players that has the same home run total or higher in a season, eleven have been tied to some form of steroid during that season. Of the players that hit fifty-four or more home runs in a single season since 1980, eleven of fourteen have been tied to PEDs, with only Griffey and Ryan Howard not being tied to the drugs. Griffey is commonly known as having one of the sweetest swings of all time, and Howard is a pure power hitter that has consistently put up big numbers. They certainly weren't journeyman players like Bautista, who struggled from year to year and suddenly exploded for a monster season.
Secondly, let's look at Bautista's history. His first season in the big leagues was in 2004. Since that time he has switched teams seven times, and has never posted any more that 16 home run in a season (2006). Last season, before he posted such a huge year, he managed only 13 home runs playing for the same team at the same stadium. That seems to rule out the "playing in a hitter's park" argument that was commonly used during the steroids era. Bautista claims that his sudden power comes from a new hitting approach that comes from the Blue Jays' coaches. Simply put, the theory is swing the bat as hard as you can every time. Don't try to hit for average or just put the ball in play, just hit it hard. This is believable, and I also doubt that very many teams teach this method, but that being said, it seems unlikely that a simple method approach can turn a thirteen home run player to a fifty-four home run player in a single season, with the same coaching. (Does this remind anyone of Luis Gonzales' simple opening of his stance approach that he claimed led to his sudden fifty-seven home run season? There is no way opening your stance gives you thirty extra home runs. Of course he was later tied to steroids as well.)
Finally I remember watching the Blue Jays early in the season, before I even started paying attention to Bautista. They put up a stat about how the Blue Jays of all teams was leading the league in home runs by far. I looked at a few stats on the players and noticed several players were having big years. In the last two seasons, six of the Blue Jays' regular players have had career years in home runs, and usually by far. My immediate thought was steroids. Why? Because a few years ago when HGH users first started getting uncovered, they seemed to come in packs on teams. The answer for this is simple. A lot of times a player will have another player inject them with a PED, and it is hard to hide things from twenty-five players you travel with everyday for half of the year. Because of this, HGH use seemed to multiply on teams, as players would share their secrets to other players who also were looking for an edge and were willing to use. If that player ever told, you had something on them, helping keep the drug use in secrecy. Remember the Giants' teams with steroid users Barry Bonds, Benito Santiago, Marvin Bernard, Matt Williams, David Bell, F.P Santangelo, and Bobby Estalella. These guys seemed to be found together on teams, as HGH was just getting big and players were suggesting it to each other. So it does set off some alarms in this era when a weak team suddenly starts hitting off the chart home run totals at the same time.
This leaves us with two possibilities. Maybe Bautista has bought into a new approach from the Blue Jays that allowed his natural talent to be put to use at the highest level. Or maybe he finally figured it out after all these seasons in the league. Or maybe he has found a new substance to enhance his numbers, that is currently undetectable in tests, like HGH was earlier this decade. For the baseball sake, in an era of scandal, lies, and corruption, I certainly hope it is the former. If it truly is, then a congratulations and a number of apologies are deserved for Bautista, for one of the most surprising seasons in the history of the game.